RBA Interest Rate for 2026: One and Done After February Hike?

When the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted rates at its first meeting of 2026, markets quickly shifted into defensive mode. Traders began pricing further tightening. Commentators warned of a renewed hiking cycle.

But Australia’s top-ranked forecasters are pushing back on that narrative. Their view is more nuanced: the February move may prove to be a credibility hike rather than the beginning of a sustained tightening phase.

The difference matters.

A Policy Pivot, But Not Neccesarily a Cycle

Underlying inflation rose to 3.4 per cent in the year to December, above the. . .