ASX Weekly Market Wrap

Australian markets spent the week in a genuine tug of war, with a softer oil backdrop, a fragile Iran ceasefire, and a powerful rebound across miners and gold stocks all pulling sentiment in different directions at once. The ASX 200 still managed to grind higher, up 0.74% for the week, supported by strength in materials, gold, staples and utilities, although the broader index still feels some distance from stability given the macro uncertainty.

It was not a clean rally. It felt conditional.

Key stories, de escalation but not resolution

The dominant theme was de escalation rather than resolution, with oil easing as markets began to price in a fragile ceasefire and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although the underlying supply risk has clearly not disappeared from the system.

That shift was enough to spark a rebound in global risk assets, particularly across US and European equities, while Australian investors rotated back into gold and materials after what had been a fairly aggressive prior sell off across those sectors.

Macro drove everything. Earnings barely mattered.

The inflation overhang from the earlier oil spike still sits in the background, and while the market is willing to lean into relief for now, it is doing so cautiously, with positioning still reflecting a preference for assets that can hold up if conditions deteriorate again.

Aussie indexes, rotation matters more than the headline

The index move itself was modest, but the internal rotation told a much more interesting story, with investors clearly shifting back toward asset heavy exposures and inflation linked sectors while continuing to avoid rate sensitive and growth heavy parts of the market.

Index / Sector	Weekly Move
S&P/ASX 200	+0.74%
All Ordinaries	+0.71%
Materials	+3.44%
Metals & Mining	+3.63%
Gold Index	+9.67%
Energy	+1.25%
Consumer Staples	+1.63%
Utilities	+1.56%
Financials	-0.37%
Health Care	-1.65%
Info Technology	-0.86%
Consumer Discretionary	-0.56%

Gold and materials led from the front, which makes sense given how aggressively those sectors had been sold off in the prior month, while banks and healthcare lagged again, reinforcing the idea that investors still prefer real assets and defensives over duration sensitive exposures.

Global indexes, a relief rally with limits

Global markets staged a strong rebound, led by the US and supported by Europe, as investors grew more comfortable that the most acute phase of the Iran shock may have passed, at least in the near term.

Index	Weekly Move
S&P 500	+3.36%
Dow Jones	+2.96%
Nasdaq Comp	+4.44%
FTSE 100	+4.70%
DAX 30	+3.89%
Nikkei 225	-0.47%

This was a relief rally, not a full reset.

Markets are still trading around oil. If the ceasefire holds, risk assets can push higher, but if headlines shift again, the same volatility can return quickly, which explains why positioning still looks relatively defensive beneath the surface.

ASX big movers, stock level signals still cautious

With markets closed for Good Friday, Thursday 10 April gave the cleanest read on stock level positioning, and the moves broadly aligned with the sector level story playing out across the week.

Top 5 gainers:

Rank	Code	Company	Close	Move
1	KAR	Karoon Energy	$1.735	+2.97%
2	TWE	Treasury Wine Estates	$4.850	+2.75%
3	ACL	Australian Clinical Labs	$2.260	+2.73%
4	TCL	Transurban Group	$14.240	+2.59%
5	RHC	Ramsay Health Care	$38.620	+2.99%

Top 5 losers:

Rank	Code	Company	Close	Move
1	GYG	Guzman y Gomez	$17.530	-13.94%
2	ING	Inghams Group	$2.110	-13.52%
3	MP1	Megaport	$9.650	-11.79%
4	MAF	MA Financial Group	$9.080	-10.54%
5	PNV	Polynovo	$0.920	-8.46%

There is a clear message here. Investors are still not rewarding growth at any price.

Consumer facing names, food, and tech were hit hard, while energy linked, healthcare, and infrastructure style names held up, which reinforces the idea that this remains a cautious market even when the index is rising.

Commodities, relief rally with underlying strength

Commodity markets reflected a mix of easing panic and underlying structural strength, with oil pulling back from extreme levels while metals and precious metals rebounded strongly.

Commodity	Weekly Move	Notes
Gold	+6.18%	Recovered above prior consolidation zone
Silver	+7.04%	Stronger than gold on the week
Copper	+2.07%	Supply narrative still supportive
Aluminium	+6.76%	Strong rebound
Zinc	+5.70%	Broad metals strength
Nickel	-2.46%	One of the few weak spots
Iron ore	+1.23%	Continued recovery
Uranium	+0.67%	Quietly constructive

The key point is that the war premium has not disappeared, it has simply moderated, which leaves markets exposed to any renewed escalation, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.

Major currencies, dollar still in control

Currency markets followed the same pattern seen across equities and commodities, with the US dollar remaining firm, although the extreme panic bid faded as oil pulled back and risk sentiment improved.

The Australian dollar remains under pressure relative to pre war levels.

USD/JPY is still elevated. EUR and GBP remain reactive.

Nothing here suggests a clean shift in trend. It still feels like positioning rather than conviction, with the dollar maintaining strength while markets wait for clearer signals on rates and geopolitics.

Watchlist, what actually matters next

With earnings largely out of the way, the focus shifts firmly back to macro drivers, particularly oil, inflation expectations, and the durability of the ceasefire.

Energy remains the most headline sensitive sector. Gold and miners now need to prove this rebound has legs.

Consumer names still look fragile. Banks and REITs will move with rate expectations.

This is still a market being driven top down, and until that changes, sector rotation will continue to matter more than stock specific stories.