RBA Shock, Commodity Rout and Risk Assets Reprice
Australian markets endured a bruising week, capped by the RBA’s surprise 25 basis point rate hike to 3.85%. The decision rattled risk sentiment and accelerated selling across equities and commodities.
The ASX 200 fell 1.81% to close at 8,708.8. Small caps and miners bore the brunt. Investors moved quickly to reprice growth and cyclicals.
Globally, precious metals sold off sharply. Silver collapsed 15%. Oil and copper weakened as geopolitical risk premiums faded and China demand concerns resurfaced.
The US dollar strengthened against a softer Australian dollar. Despite volatility, US equity markets finished the week modestly higher.
There were isolated bright spots. Treasury Wine Estates surged late in the week. SKS Technologies rallied on contract momentum. Technology and consumer staples lagged badly.
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Key Market Stories
The RBA’s February 4 hike was the first since 2023. Policymakers cited inflation that remains uncomfortably high.
The move triggered sharp equity selling and renewed AUD volatility.
Commodity markets rolled over as easing geopolitical tensions collided with signs of slowing Chinese activity. Silver led losses, while gold and copper fell around 3%.
SKS Technologies surged after reaffirming FY26 guidance of $340 million and announcing new contract wins.
Australian Index Performance
Resources stocks were hit hardest as iron ore and gold prices slid. Financials were relative outperformers.
| Index / Sector | Weekly Move |
|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | -1.81% |
| All Ordinaries | -2.29% |
| S&P/ASX 300 | -1.99% |
| Communication Services | -3.88% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -2.41% |
| Consumer Staples | -1.73% |
| Energy | -0.79% |
| Financials | -1.33% |
| Health Care | -1.18% |
| Industrials | -1.64% |
| Information Technology | -4.37% |
| Materials | -2.96% |
| Real Estate | -1.51% |
| Utilities | -0.92% |
Technology stocks again underperformed. Rate sensitivity dominated flows.
ASX Big Movers
Notable weekly and session moves
Top gainers
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE), +6.98% on Thursday to $5.52
- Amcor (AMC), +6.65% Thursday bounce, despite weekly losses
- GQG Partners (GQG), +6.19%
- Netwealth Group (NWL), +5.96%
- Premier Investments (PMV), +5.92%
Top losers
- Xero (XRO), down roughly 15.9% for the week
- Polynovo (PNV), -6.19% Thursday
- Pilbara Minerals (PLS), around -5% on lithium weakness
- Fortescue (FMG), -4.08% Thursday on iron ore pressure
Stock specific news mattered, but macro forces dominated.
Global Equity Markets
US markets proved more resilient despite weakness in mega cap technology. Asian markets lagged.
| Index | Weekly Change |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.3% |
| Dow Jones | -0.4% |
| Nasdaq | -0.2% |
| Nikkei 225 | -1.0% |
Global investors remain cautious. Volatility stayed elevated.
Global Commodities
Metals and energy led declines. Agricultural markets were steadier.
| Commodity | Weekly Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | -4% | ~$67.84 per barrel |
| Gold | -3% | Four week low |
| Silver | -15% | Sharp correction |
| Copper | -3% | China demand concerns |
| Iron Ore | -2% | Elevated stockpiles |
| Wheat | Flat | ~$257 per tonne |
Commodity volatility remains a key risk for Australian equities.
Major Currencies
The Australian dollar weakened following the RBA decision.
| Pair | Weekly Change |
|---|---|
| AUD/USD | -1.0% |
| USD/JPY | +0.8% |
| EUR/USD | -1.5% |
| GBP/USD | -0.5% |
What It Means for Investors
Last week reinforced a clear message. Markets remain highly sensitive to rates and macro surprises. Defensive positioning outperformed. High multiple growth stocks struggled. Commodity exposure cut both ways. For the week ahead, investors will watch inflation data, global growth signals and central bank rhetoric closely. Volatility is unlikely to fade quickly.