Australian Unemployment Rate: Why 4.3% may be the calm before the slowdown

The latest unemployment outlook starts with a number that looks reassuring and a story that does not.

At face value, March was steady. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, the participation rate slipped slightly to 66.8% and employment rose to about 14.77 million. Full-time employment also increased in the seasonally adjusted data. These point to an economy that is cooling, but not cracking.

But labour market data is rarely most useful as a snapshot. It matters more as a timing signal, and right now the timing matters a lot.

Why 4. . .

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