U.S. Government Shutdown: Duration Matters More Than Drama

The economic hit is path-dependent; the bigger signal is governance risk showing up in credit markets.

The U.S. federal government shut down at 12:01am on Oct 1 after competing funding bills failed in the Senate. With no agreement in place, the White House directed federal agencies to implement shutdown procedures, triggering furloughs and service disruptions.

Why It Matters - Signal Vs. Noise

Shutdowns typically shave only a fraction off GDP growth in the short term. According to S&P Global, the impact is around 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week, with lost activity often rebounding once government operations resume.

Credit Agencies split on risks.

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