AI Funding Reality Check: From Capex Promises to Cash Flows

Follow the money, not the hype.

The AI trade hasn't broken; it's grown up. Markets are now asking the only question that matters for multi-trillion capex plans: who funds it, on what terms, and when does it show up in earnings?

What changed

Firstly, the sharp pullback in mega-cap tech came as investors questioned the financing path behind frontier AI: OpenAI's headline infrastructure ambitions (after a prior US$1.4T figure, now "trillions") and chatter around backstops put debt, equity and circular supplier funding under the microscope. Secondly, broader risk appetite faded, higher dollar, tighter. . .

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