RBA Rate Debate Splits Economists as Inflation Proves Stubborn

Australia's inflation debate has lurched back into centre stage, and this time the economic consensus has splintered. The latest AFR economist survey captures something rarely seen in a traditionally predictable rate landscape: genuine disagreement about where the Reserve Bank of Australia goes next.

After a year defined by widespread expectations of easing, the mood has flipped. Seven of 38 economists now expect a rate hike as early as February, and nearly half believe the RBA will need to tighten at least twice over the next 18 months. The pivot is grounded in a simple but uncomfortable reality: price pressures. . .