Markets are trapped between CPI and crude. What to watch next

The market has gone back to an old problem very quickly.

For a while, investors could still tell themselves that the inflation scare was fading and that growth could hold up without another energy shock. That view looks much harder to defend now. Oil is back above $100, the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, and the next US CPI print arrives with markets already nervous that higher fuel costs are bleeding into broader prices.

That is the backdrop for this week.

Oil has become the main macro variable again

The sharpest signal is. . .