The latest jump in crude is telling the market something more serious than “tensions are high.”
The real message is that traders are starting to lose confidence in a quick operational reset. When oil first spikes on war headlines, the default assumption is often that the move contains a large fear premium that can unwind quickly. That is not how this now looks. A market trading Brent above $120, with the prompt contract briefly touching around $126, is no longer simply pricing escalation risk. It is starting to price duration risk.
That distinction matters because short, violent price spikes can. . .
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