The next market split is old commodities vs electrification

The cleanest way to read May 2026 is that markets are no longer trading one commodity cycle, but are trading two.

The first is the familiar one: oil, iron ore, industrial activity and the broader old-economy growth pulse. The second is newer and more structural: copper, lithium, data-centre power demand, grid investment and storage. Those two cycles can still overlap, but they are no longer moving with the same logic. That is why broad macro commentary is starting to miss the point. It still talks about “commodities” as one asset class when the market is already treating them. . .