“Highest spending.” “Highest taxing.” “Record deficit.” These claims have become standard attacks against the Albanese Government, usually accompanied by increasingly dramatic headline figures. The claim feels intuitive. Spending is measured in record billions, tax receipts continue to rise, and debt figures approaching a trillion dollars naturally create the impression of fiscal excess. This helps explain why such claims are so common in political debate. But intuition is not analysis. Another problem is that nominal figures tell us very little and can be misleading. Australia’s economy is far larger than it was a decade, let alone several decades ago. This article will be looking at the burden relative to GDP, real growth, and the actual budget balance.
Methodology: How We’re Testing The Claim
To test this claim, this analysis will be examining 6 core fiscal indicators across the modern budget era start from 1985-86 to 2024-2025. Payments as a % GDP, real payments growth, tax receipts as a % of GDP, net debt, gross debt and the underlying cash balance. This will be broken down and assessed across 9 government periods these being:
- Hawke 1985-86 to 1991-92
- Keating 1992-93 to 1995-96
- Howard 1996-97 to 2007-08
- Rudd 2008-09 to 2010-11
- Gillard 2011-12 to 2012-13
- Abbott 2013-14 to 2015-16
- Turnbull 2016-17 to 2018-19
- Morrison 2019-20 to 2021-22
- Albanese 2022-23 to 2024-25
Real Payments Growth
A government can look like a big spender simply because the economy is larger, prices are higher, or both. Real payments growth is a more direct test of fiscal discipline, as it adjusts for inflation and measures how quickly Commonwealth expenditure is actually increasing over time. If the Albanese Government is truly the most spendthrift in modern Australian history, this should be evident here.
Ranked
| Government | Average Real Payments Growth |
| Morrison | 6.9% |
| Rudd | 5.5% |
| Howard | 3.3% |
| Keating | 3.1% |
| Abbott | 2.9% |
| Turnbull | 2.3% |
| Albanese | 1.2% |
| Gillard | 0.8% |
| Hawke | 0.8% |
The data does not support that claim. Since taking office, the Albanese Government has averaged approximately 1.2% annual real payments growth, lower than any other government except the Hawke and Gillard Government. This places the Albanese Government among the more fiscally restrained administrations of the modern era rather than among the most expansionary. While 2024–25 shows some acceleration in spending, the broader picture is one of comparatively modest expenditure growth rather than fiscal excess.
Verdict: MISLEADING
Tax Receipts
Raw tax collections reaching record dollar figures may sound alarming, but in a larger and more inflationary economy, that is hardly surprising. The more meaningful question is whether taxation as a share of the economy has reached historically elevated levels. Taxation receipts as a percentage of GDP provide the clearest test.
| Government | Avg tax receipts % GDP |
| Howard | 23.7% |
| Albanese | 23.6% |
| Morrison | 22.5% |
| Turnbull | 22.4% |
| Hawke | 22.3% |
| Abbott | 21.7% |
| Gillard | 21.0% |
| Keating | 20.8% |
| Rudd-Gillard | 20.6% |
Unlike spending, the taxation claim carries more weight, but only partially. The Albanese Government has averaged 23.6% of GDP in taxation receipts, just behind the Howard Government as the highest in the modern era. Most of the increase has been driven by bracket creep, inflation lifting nominal incomes, and strong company tax collections rather than sweeping tax hikes.
Verdict: PARTLY TRUE
Debt
With debt approaching $1 trillion this makes for politically potent headlines. But raw nominal debt figures can be deeply misleading across time, particularly in a growing economy. A fairer test is to examine gross debt relative to GDP, which measures the debt burden against the size of the economy. Given governments serve for vastly different periods, annualising the change also provides a more meaningful comparison. If the Albanese Government is truly Australia’s most indebted in modern history, the evidence should be visible here.
| Government | Inherited | End | Avg Nominal Change p.a | Avg % of GDP Change p.a |
| Morrison | $542Bn (27.8%) | $895.3Bn(38.4%) | +$117.8bn | +3.5 pts |
| Abbott | $257.4Bn (16.7%) | $420.4Bn (25.4%) | +$54.3bn | +2.9 pts |
| Rudd | $55.4Bn (4.7%) | $191.3bn (13.5%) | +$45.3bn | +2.9 pts |
| Keating | $48.7Bn (11.7%) | $110.2Bn (20.8%) | +$12.3bn | +1.8 pts |
| Gillard | $191.3bn (13.5%) | $257.4Bn (16.7%) | +33.0Bn | +1.6 pts |
| Turnbull | $420.4Bn (25.4%) | $542Bn (27.8%) | +$40.5bn | +0.8 pts |
| Howard | $110.2Bn (20.8%) | $55.4Bn (4.7%) | -$4.6bn | -1.3 pts |
| Albanese | $895.3Bn (38.4%) | $928.6Bn (33.5%) | +$11.1bn | -1.6 pts |
| Hawke | $58.8Bn (25.0%) | $48.7Bn (11.7%) | -$1.7bn | -2.2 pts |
The evidence points in the opposite direction. The Albanese Government has recorded the smallest nominal increase in gross debt of any government since the GFC, while materially reducing gross debt as a share of GDP. It was also the first government since the Global Financial Crisis to record an outright nominal reduction in gross debt, with debt falling by $5.5bn in 2022–23.
Verdict: MISLEADING
Underlying Cash Balance
Debt and spending figures can be debated through different accounting lenses, but the budget balance is harder to obscure. The underlying cash balance is the Commonwealth’s primary measure of the budget position, providing the clearest test of whether a government is consistently running surpluses or deficits. If the Albanese Government is truly presiding over a fiscal blowout, the evidence should be visible here.
| Government | Average UCB (% GDP) |
| Morrison | -4.0% |
| Keating | -3.3% |
| Rudd | -3.2% |
| Abbott | -2.6% |
| Gillard | -2.1% |
| Turnbull | -0.8% |
| Hawke | -0.4% |
| Albanese | +0.4% |
| Howard | +0.9% |
The data does not support the claim. Since taking office, the Albanese Government has averaged an underlying cash balance of approximately +0.4 per cent of GDP, ranking second only to Howard in the modern era and the only government to deliver a budget surplus since Howard. Rather than pointing to fiscal excess, this measure suggests one of the strongest budget performances of any recent government, delivering the largest nominal surplus ever of $22.1bn in 2022-2023 and the largest nominal back to back ever at $37.9bn.
Verdict: FALSE
Conclusion
The claim that the Albanese Government is Australia’s highest spending, highest taxing and most indebted modern government does not withstand scrutiny. While nominal figures can create that impression, broader historical comparisons tell a different story. Real spending growth has been among the lowest of the modern era. Tax receipts remain marginally below the Howard average. Gross debt as a share of GDP has fallen materially, and the government ranks among the strongest recent performers on the underlying cash balance.
That does not mean every fiscal decision has been optimal, nor that long-term structural budget pressures have disappeared. But the specific claim that this is an unprecedented fiscal outlier is not supported by the evidence.
Source
Comparisons use Commonwealth budget data from appendix B of the 2024-25 FBO. Spending is measured using annual real payments growth found in Table B.1. Taxation is measured as receipts as a share of GDP found in Table B.3. Gross debt uses total Australian Government Securities (AGS) on issue as a share of GDP found in Table B.5, annualised where appropriate. Budget balance uses the underlying cash balance as a share of GDP found in Table B.1.