2026-27 Budget Winners and Losers: Who Gains and Who Pays?

5 Min Read

Every budget creates winners and losers, and Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ 2026–27 Federal Budget is no exception.

While workers, motorists and public healthcare users emerge with clear benefits, property investors, discretionary trust users and fiscal conservatives may be less enthusiastic.

Here’s who came out ahead — and who took a hit.

Winners

Workers

  • Working Australians Tax Offset worth up to $250 annually. Treasury says 97% of eligible workers will receive the full amount.
  • a $1,000 instant tax deduction, expected to benefit 6.2 million workers, saving an average of $205.
  • The 16% tax bracket will be cut to 15% from July 2026 and 14% from July 2027. Cutting tax for all taxpayers saving up to $536.
  • Higher Medicare levy low-income thresholds, helping 1 million workers.

First Home Buyers

  • Changes to CGT discount and negative gearing is projected to help 75,000 homes change hands from investors to first home buyers.
  • $2 billion Local Infrastructure Fund to unlock housing supply.
  • Extension of the ban on foreign purchases of established homes until mid-2029.

Patients and Healthcare Users

  • $25 billion in additional public hospital funding.
  • $11.4 billion to expand bulk billing incentives.
  • $1.8 billion to make Medicare Urgent Care Clinics permanent.
  • $5.9 billion for new PBS medicines and cheaper prescriptions.

Older Australians

  • $3.7 billion in aged care reforms.
  • More residential aged care beds.
  • Expanded Support at Home packages.
  • Dementia care investment.
  • Personal care affordability measures.

Small business

  • Permanent $20,000 instant asset write-off.
  • Venture capital and startup investment support.
  • Productivity-focused deregulation and planning reform.
  • SME’s allowed to offset losses again previous year’s profits.

Defence Industry

  • $53 billion in additional defence investment over 10 years with $14 billion in the next 4.
  • Submarine capability expansion
  • Autonomous and uncrewed defence investment
  • Naval shipbuilding expansion
  • Major Henderson Defence Precinct investment in WA

Motorists

  • Temporary 32 cent per litre fuel excise cut
  • Elimination of the heavy vehicle road user charge
  • Fuel market monitoring
  • Broader fuel resilience measures including minimum of 50-day supply of diesel and Jet Fuel reserves in a $10.7Bn fuel security package. $3.2 billion on a government-owned fuel reserve, which will hold 1 billion litres reserves.

Losers

Property investors

  • Future investors purchasing existing properties will lose access to current negative gearing treatment.
  • CGT 50% discount expected to return to indexation from July 2027.
  • New housing remains more favourable than existing stock with access to NG and CGT discount remaining.

Discretionary Trust Users

  • New minimum tax rules for discretionary trusts.
  • Reduced flexibility for tax planning structures.
  • Likely impact on higher-income households and some business arrangements.

NDIS Participants and Advocates

  • Government aims to reduce annual growth rate from about 10 per cent down to 5-6 per cent long term.
  • Cost-saving measures include pushing more than 160,000 participants off the NDIS and onto state-run support programs by 2030.
  • Government calls it sustainability. Critics may call it cuts.

Older Australians with PHI

  • The government has scrapped an extra private health insurance subsidy for people aged over 65.
  • Previously people aged 65-69 could claim 28% and people age 70+ 32%, now the rebate of 24% will apply to all Australians.
  • 3+ million Australians will have to pay, on average, between $226 and $255 more a year.

Mixed

Gas Industry

  • Gas companies have avoided the 25% export tax despite wide range of support and advocacy.
  • The PRRT is expected to bring in slightly more revenue due to a combination of previous reforms and windfall from the Iran war.
  • Gas companies will face more regulations from July 2027.
  • New 20% domestic gas reservation policy that will force east-coast LNG exporters to sell 20% of their gas on the Australian market.
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